MISTRA has been producing analyses of each election since 2014. In 2021 it produced the seminal book Marriages of Inconvenience: The politics of coalitions in South Africa, which laid the basis for the first edition of the MISTRA Coalitions Barometer, which was focused on the almost 80 hung municipal councils.

The MISTRA Coalitions Barometer II draws on case studies from the approximately 80 local governments, alongside analysis of the unfolding national and provincial coalition governments. It  thus builds on MISTRA’s previous works to  illuminate how the country’s political culture is adapting, and at times struggling, to manage this new governance landscape.

The Coalitions Barometer II provides a systematic, evidence-based review of:

• coalition formation and power-sharing negotiations
• intra-coalition contestation and its effects on governance
• the strategic behaviour of political parties under coalition conditions
• shifts in party coalitions across different levels of government
• the impact on state capacity, policy implementation, and service delivery.

The primary author, Professor Susan Booysen, will lead a discussion unpacking how these dynamics are shaping South Africa’s coalition era and what they mean for future political stability and democratic accountability.