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Launch: MISTRA Coalitions Barometer II (2023 – 2025)

12 August 2025

On Tuesday, 12 August 2025, The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) launched the MISTRA Coalitions Barometer II (2023 – 2025). This publication is the latest in our ongoing analysis of South Africa’s coalition politics. Speakers at the launch unpacked insights from this new research, offering an in-depth account of the evolving coalition dynamics between 2023 and early 2025.

MISTRA has been producing analyses of each election since 2014. In 2021 it produced the seminal book Marriages of Inconvenience: The politics of coalitions in South Africa, which laid the basis for the first edition of the MISTRA Coalitions Barometer, which was focused on the almost 80 hung municipal councils.

The MISTRA Coalitions Barometer II draws on case studies from the approximately 80 local governments, alongside analysis of the unfolding national and provincial coalition governments. It  thus builds on MISTRA’s previous works to  illuminate how the country’s political culture is adapting, and at times struggling, to manage this new governance landscape. 

The Coalitions Barometer II provides a systematic, evidence-based review of:

  • coalition formation and power-sharing negotiations
  • intra-coalition contestation and its effects on governance
  • the strategic behaviour of political parties under coalition conditions
  • shifts in party coalitions across different levels of government
  • the impact on state capacity, policy implementation, and service delivery.

The primary author, Professor Susan Booysen, led a discussion unpacking how these dynamics are shaping South Africa’s coalition era and what they mean for future political stability and democratic accountability.

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